Historical Four-Year Cycle Faces a Critical Test

Bitcoin's price movements have historically followed a predictable four-year cycle, often tied to its "halving" events. The most recent halving occurred in April 2024, setting the stage for a theoretical market peak in late 2025.

According to analysis from sources like prominent market commentators, this model has served as a reliable guide for past bull runs. If the pattern holds, the current surge is a prelude to a cycle top.

Is the Boom-and-Bust Pattern Fading?

However, a growing number of analysts argue that the market is evolving. They contend that the once-dominant four-year cycle is losing its influence due to several key factors:

• Institutional Adoption: Increased investment from mainstream financial institutions has introduced massive liquidity and a more stable investor base.

• Market Maturation: As noted by outlets like CoinCentral, the market's volatility, while still present, has decreased compared to previous cycles.

• ETFs and Regulation: The introduction of regulated Bitcoin ETFs has broadened access for investors and integrated the asset more deeply into traditional financial systems.

These developments suggest that Bitcoin's price may now be more susceptible to global macroeconomic factors than to its internal, cyclical schedule.